What drives change?

We live in interesting times. Greenland is up for grabs. Presidents get abducted. A lot of noise in the media about who said what outrageous statement. It is often hard to understand what is for real and what is distraction.

This week, I finished the peculiar book 2052 by Jörgen Randers, one of the authors of the original 1972 "Limits to Growth" study. The book is a mix of resource depletion scenarios, techno-optimism, market economy believes and solid systems dynamics. It was written in 2012 to mark the forty years since the original study, and Randers wrote the book as an outlook for the subsequent forty years. We are a third into his story, and many things have materialized while others not.

The most interesting part of the book, I think, is his reflections on how people in general don't want to understand how the world works, and instead follow traditions, media reports and politicians rallying cries. I quote a long passage from the introduction, where he talks about the learnings from the original study:

The main conclusion from our exercise in the early 1970s was that, without big changes, humanity was poised to grow dangerously beyond the physical limits of our planet. This was a conclusion based on the observation (self-evident for us, but not for all) that it takes time for humanity to solve any pressing issue arising from the finiteness (obvious for us, but not for all) of the planet. It takes time to identify the problem, time to accept that it is real, time to solve it, and time to implement the new solution. The first part—the “observation and acceptance delay”—made it likely (to us, but not all) that humanity would allow itself to grow in size and physical impact beyond the sustainable carrying capacity of the global ecosystem. This long delay would allow—and even invite—what we called overshoot, especially if humanity was growing fast toward planetary constraints. Practically speaking, it is possible for humanity to remain in overshoot for a while (as when overfishing), but overshoot cannot and will not last forever once its foundations have been destroyed (when there are no more fish). Randers, "2052", Preface, p12., Chelsea Green, 2012,

The tendency for delay and denial is strong. I observe a growing number of people who claim that the climate is not changing, and if it is changing it can not be due to their consumption. I guess it is similar wherever you are.

In the agricultural sector, I hear similar denial regarding the complicity for eutrophication. It must be someone elses nitrogen that kills the fish in our bay.

It is hard to accept that we are part of a problem. Usually reality catches up sooner or later, but I think that many people will live their whole lives in denial, telling fictional stories of how they are good people, until they die, smug and content.

I wonder where I am stuck in denial and delay? Where will reality bite me in the back? What drives change?

Cold farming

We are in the coldest time of the year. The days are short and the nights are long. A good time to read, reflect and recover. Long evenings with the fireplace sizzling. Some weeks we have snow, some not. The temperature goes up and down a bit.

The first days of January, we had a real cold snap, down to -16C for a couple of days.

Snow is pretty.

The neighbour's birches are beautiful.

We protect what needs to be protected, like the hens. We moved the portable hen house into one of the poly tunnels and I move it once per week. Most of the time the hens are free to roam the tunnel and we feed them kitchen scraps a bit here and there, to get nutrition well spread. Inside the tunnel it is cold, but since there is no wind, it is fine for the hens. I put a small 30W electric heater to keep their water from freezing.

Happy hens in the cold.

Solar power is great when the sun is beaming for long hours every day. Not like the situation is for us in the winter. As Chris from https://ferngladefarm.com.au/2025/06/16/its-what-you-dont-know/ says; if the plants cannot grow, there is not much energy in the sunshine.

The solar panels don't do much good this time of year.

Walking around our place in the snow is very revealing, since many animals leave tracks.

We found two holes where voles have come in and out during the snow time. I know where to put a trap as soon as the soil thaws.

Winter is a great time for walks in the woods.

We also take time to do some walks on the beach (approx 10 km from here) to get some sunshine into our eyes.

Beach time.

The frost is pretty on the sand.

The seaside forest is also nice in the frost.

Nuts and grafts

Winter is the best time to collect graftwood. This year I started to sell graft scions from the chestnut mother trees here, since I now have more than I can use myself.

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Chestnut 'Bouche de Bétizac' - a french hybrid chestnut.

I also collect some apple scions for fun.

On a rare day of thaw, I planted out some hazelnut bushes.

The farm

Life goes on on the farm.

Our winter storage of apples is still amazing.

I repaired an old spinner that we got from a friend. Maybe M will make some yarn?

I oiled the tools with wooden handles.

Our friend Johan made lactofermented carrots. Yum.

Helena and Fabian came by to sort and crack some walnuts.

Seeds of change

Change is constant. I do have a preference for change in a more life-positive direction, and I guess that we need to sow the seeds of change that we think are necessary. We collected some seeds from our vegetables and flowers, and coming Saturday some friends are coming over for a seed exchange.

Plenty of seeds to spare.

The most beautiful seeds are the Hablitzia tamnoides round small spheres of life.